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File #: 13-1453    Version: 1
Type: Agenda Item Status: Approved
File created: 11/13/2013 In control: Board of Supervisors
On agenda: 12/3/2013 Final action: 12/3/2013
Title: Community Development Agency, Long Range Planning Division, recommending the Board approve the proposed 2013/2014 10-year residential permit forecast. (Est. Time: 15 Min.)
Attachments: 1. A- Permit Forecast Presentation, 2. B - Permit applications, 3. C - Permit revenue, 4. C - (Revised) Permit revenue.pdf
Title
Community Development Agency, Long Range Planning Division, recommending the Board approve the proposed 2013/2014 10-year residential permit forecast. (Est. Time: 15 Min.)
Body
Fiscal Impact/Change to Net County Cost
There is no fiscal impact or change to net County Cost associated with this item.

Background
General Plan Policy TC-Xb and Implementation Measures TC-A and TC-B require the annual update of the Capital Improvement Program (CIP), specifying expenditures for roadway improvements within the next ten years. A major update is also specified by the General Plan Policies and Implementation Measures every five years, in line with the major review of the General Plan, specifying expenditures for roadway improvements within the next twenty years. The Long Range Planning Division (Division) had anticipated moving forward with the major update of the CIP in the 2013/2014 Fiscal Year. However, as the updated 20-Year forecast through 2035 has not been adopted, the Division is moving forward with the annual update.

One of the major funding sources for the CIP is revenue from the Traffic Impact Mitigation (TIM) Fee Program. The majority of the TIM Fee Program’s revenue comes from residential building permits. The Division’s residential permit forecast process initiates the annual updating cycle for both the CIP and the TIM Fee Program.

The Division uses the residential permit forecast to estimate TIM Fee revenues programmed in the 10-Year CIP. The forecast is based on the original 20-year growth projection through 2025 developed by Economic and Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) as part of the General Plan adoption. General Plan policies require that the forecast is evaluated annually for the minor updates of the CIP program. To date, the market has shown that the residential permit activity has not increased as originally anticipated in the EPS report, and has been growing at a slower rate.

There are consequences of forecasting too high or too low. ...

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