Title
Transportation Department recommending the Board approve the proposed ten year residential permit forecast. (Est. Time: 1 Hr)
Body
Fiscal Impact/Change to Net County Cost:
There is no change to Net County Cost associated with this item.
Background:
The amended General Plan policies associated with Measure Y, passed by the voters on November 4, 2008, require a 10-Year Capital Improvement Program (CIP) instead of a 5-Year CIP as was previously done. The major funding source for the CIP is Traffic Impact Mitigation (TIM) fee revenue, which is directly proportional to new building permits, with the majority of that revenue coming from residential building permits.
Reason for Recommendation:
The Department of Transportation (DOT) has been working with the TIM Fee Working Group (TFWG) to update the residential permit forecast approved by the Board on January 13, 2009.
Given the continued deterioration in the housing market since January, 2009, and the opinion of the developers in the TFWG that there is no indication the market will improve in the near future, DOT and the TFWG are recommending a downward revision to the last ten year forecast of 13,000 units to 10,730 units. At the August 20, 2009 meeting of the TFWG, the ten year residential permit forecast was developed to be presented to the Board:
FISCAL YEAR
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Total |
166 |
166 |
478 |
920 |
1,500 |
1,500 |
1,500 |
1,500 |
1,500 |
1,500 |
10,730 |
Action to be taken following Board approval:
DOT will use the approved forecast to develop the 10-Year CIP specified in the updated General Plan policies and will return with a draft 10-Year CIP for a Board workshop in January, 2010.
Contact:
James E. Ware, P.E.
Director of Transportation
Concurrences: None