Title
Department of Transportation recommending the Board:
1) Receive an El Dorado Countywide Housing and Employment Projections, 2018 - 2040 Memorandum pertaining to the 2020 Major Update of the Traffic Impact Mitigation Fee Program, the 2016 - 2020 five-year review of the General Plan and the 2021 - 2029 Housing Element Update; and
2) Provide Staff and their consultants with input and direction. (Est. Time: 1.5 Hr.)
FUNDING: N/A
Body
DISCUSSION / BACKGROUND
On September 17, 2019 (Item 32), the Department of Transportation has been directed to accelerate the 2020 Major Update to the Traffic Impact Mitigation (TIM) Fee Program. This is the second workshop to discuss policy items related to the TIM Fee Program.
An El Dorado Countywide Housing and Employment Projections, 2018 - 2040 Memorandum (Memorandum) has been prepared by the County’s consultant, BAE Urban Economics, Inc. (BAE) (Attachment A). The projections will assist the County in the preparation of an updated Travel Demand Model for the TIM Fee and CIP major updates, provide a basis for the 2016 - 2020 Five-year General Plan review and the 2021 - 2029 Housing Element Update. The updated growth projections cover the Western Slope of El Dorado County for the period from 2018 to 2040.
Base Year Housing and Employment Estimates
It is necessary to establish a starting-point for the projections exercise, currently the projections cover only the Western Slope of the county (West Slope) comprising the area outside of the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is under the jurisdiction of the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency. BAE considered five sources of estimates for housing trends and four sources of estimates for jobs trends in the West Slope. For purposes of the analysis, BAE has chosen to use the County estimates based on the County’s Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping data, as they are the most localized estimates available.
Residential (Housing) Growth Rates
As shown in the Population/Housing Units/Households section of Table 1 in Attachment A, the resulting 2018 to 2040 growth rates reflect a range of residential growth for the County. Four out of the five projections yield average annual growth rates for the period ranging between, 0.52 and 0.93 percent. The current annual growth rate adopted by the Board in 2014 is 1.03 percent.
Employment Growth Rates
In the Employment section of Table 1 in Attachment A, the 2018 to 2040 employment growth rates for three of the four sources range between 0.45 and 0.84 percent per year.
Housing Unit Projections
The Housing section of Table 2 in Attachment A shows housing unit projections for the West Slope, from 2018 to 2040 based on the growth rates identified in Table 1. For planning purposes, BAE suggests that the County consider a growth projection that reflects the average of the residential projections shown in the Housing section of Table 2 in Attachment A. This would yield 64,095 total residential units in the West Slope area by 2040 for a 0.70 percent annual average residential growth rate. This is slightly higher than the County’s 2010 to 2018 growth estimates and the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) 2040 projections, but less drastic than the growth rates suggested by the Department of Finance (DOF) and Caltrans.
Employment Projections
The Jobs section of Table 2 in Attachment A shows a series of employment projections for the 2018 to 2040 period, drawing the potential employment growth rates from the Employment section of Table 1 in Attachment A and applying them to the County’s estimated 2018 West Slope base year jobs estimate. As with the residential growth projections, BAE suggests that the County use an average of the projections shown in the Jobs section of Table 2 for the purposes of projecting West Slope job growth for the 2018 to 2040 period. This yields an average annual employment growth rate of 0.67 percent and a 2040 job total of 43,252.
Summary
Based on the data and methodology described above, BAE recommends the County use the West Slope housing unit and employment growth assumptions outlined on page 4 of Attachment A for planning purposes:
The figures in the table on page 4 of Attachment A provide the County with growth assumptions that fall within the middle range of the growth projections available from various sources and data available for this study. Further, the recommended housing unit and employment growth rates suggest the County would be producing new housing at a rate that will correspond with the rate of new employment growth, meaning that the growth pattern would be balanced and the County’s jobs/housing balance would not deteriorate over time.
Next Steps
Based on input from the Board and direction from County staff, BAE will make any necessary refinements and finalize the West Slope growth projections. Then, BAE will analyze the pattern of growth within the West Slope and allocate the 2018 to 2040 housing unit and employment growth among Community Regions and the balance of the West Slope area. BAE will then review and discuss the refined projections and growth allocations with the Planning Commission and the Board to solicit input before finalizing the projections for the County’s planning purposes.
Staff is recommending that the Board:
1) Receive the El Dorado Countywide Projections Memorandum and provide staff and their consultants with input and direction.
ALTERNATIVES
The Board could choose a different annual growth projection or continue with the current annual growth projection of 1.03%. Staff and their consultants would need to search for documentation to support a growth projection that is not included in Attachment A.
PRIOR BOARD ACTION
On May 14, 2019 (Item 41), the Board directed staff to move forward with the Major Update to the TIM Fee Program. On September 17, 2019 (Item 32), the Board directed staff to expedite the 2020 Major TIM Fee update and provide public outreach by holding workshops at the Board. On October 8, 2019 (Item 26), the Board received Technical Memorandum 1A: Vehicle Miles Traveled Based Equivalent Dwelling Units Rates, Technical Memorandum 1B: Fee Rates by Size of Single-Family Unit, Technical Memorandum 1C: Age-Restricted Fee Category, and the proposed schedule for the Major Update to the TIM Fee Program and CIP. On October 22, 2019 (Item 21), the Board approved Agreement #4324 with DKS Associates in the amount of $300,000 to provide staff assistance in developing the Major Update to the TIM Fee Program and CIP.
OTHER DEPARTMENT / AGENCY INVOLVEMENT
Planning and Building Department
CAO
County Counsel
CAO RECOMMENDATION / COMMENTS
It is recommended that the Board receive and file the presentation, and provide comments to staff.
FINANCIAL IMPACT
There is no financial impact associated with the memorandum and presentation.
CLERK OF THE BOARD FOLLOW UP ACTIONS
N/A
STRATEGIC PLAN COMPONENT
TIM Fee funding is a major funding source for the CIP, which is a vital part of the Infrastructure component of the County Strategic Plan. Adequate infrastructure is necessary for the Economic Development component and is a requirement of the County General Plan. Safe roads are a crucial factor in the Public Safety component of the County Strategic Plan.
CONTACT
Rafael Martinez, Director
Department of Transportation